First off, Trips Right over at Barking Carnival has posted his preview.  If you’ve never read him, there’s no time like the present.  If you have, do it again, because it’s quite apparent that he not only played, but also understands basketball.  It’s not often you get to read someone with those credentials. Very refreshing and always worth your time – especially when Kansas is involved.

Frontcourt

Up front, Rick Barnes starts Damion James and someone else.  For a majority of the year, that someone has been Gary Johnson, but he’s been hurt lately and as far as I know will not be available tomorrow.   If he does, he’ll present a tough match-up for us on offense as he’ll be able to pull Cole away from the basket with the ability to hit the elbow jumper or drive it hard to the rim.  But standing at only 6′6″, he’ll be a huge liability on the other end.  In his place, he’s been starting Connor Atchley, he of the surprisingly good weakside defense and sudden inability to put the ball in the hole.  And by sudden I mean his entire senior season.  Just a year ago he was averaging a 10 & 5 and shooting over 41% from three.  This year he’s at 5 & 3 and a shade over 28%. He’s been in double figures once in conference play. You tell me. 

The guys we really have to worry about are James and Dexter Pittman.  Despite his dry spells and attempts to be a SF, James is still giving the Horns nearly 16 & 10 a night.  The Morris’ have played MUCH better defense of late and gone after rebounds well, but they’ll need to be ready tomorrow.  Stay in front and make him shoot jumpers; if they let him come at them he’s too strong and fast and he’ll eat them alive.  Pittman is the surprise of this group and I’m still not sure Barnes knows how to use him, which is only partly his fault.  At 6′10″ and 300 pounds with shockingly good hands, Dexter can be an asbolute force on both ends.  Yet he averages just shy of 15 minutes, 9 points, nearly 5 boards and 3 fouls.  The last one is key.  He’ll be able to muscle into Cole for some buckets, he’ll clear some space for some rebounds and he won’t let Cole come right at him for easy scores (though Cole rarely does this anyway).  Fortunately, he’s not very quick on defense, he uses his hands WAY too much and he just doesn’t have the stamina.  He’s been better of late, but for a stretch there Barnes simply couldn’t play him more than 15 minutes because he was in foul trouble.  Which is probably a big reason why he won’t run their offense through him.  Pittman can hurt us, but only if he’s able to stay on the floor; no sure thing.

Guards

You’re obviously familiar with AJ Abrams and Justin Mason.  Abrams is exactly as you remember him, looking to and capable of hitting threes all game long (17 ppg, 40% on 223 3pA).   As mentioned in yesterday’s post, I hope Brady has his legs back.  Mason though, has caught a case of the Conner Atchleys and lost his ability to knock down a three (34% on 79 tries last year compared to 21% on 33 tries this year – that’s 7 makes in 29 games).  Statistically, he’s better around the board, save the threes, but he just doesn’t feel like the same player without the ability to hit an outside jumper.  Whoever we put on him better be ready to box out though, because he’ll kill you on the offensive boards.

The new guy is Turkish hearthrob, Dogus Balbay. He’s been given the keys to the offense, partly on ability and mostly by default as he’s the only capable distributor on the roster.  He didn’t really emerge until conference play and since then he’s been at about 5 points & assists a game.  He’s extremely quick on both ends, a good on ball defender and he can’t shoot a lick.  So much so that any time you’ve made him shoot anything but a layup, you’ve already won.  But he’s good in transition and even with space he can get to the rack and finish if you’re not sliding your feet.

Other guys they may turn to are: Varez Ward, Clint Chapman, Harrison Smith and Matt Hill.  Chapman is probably the most skilled offensively, while the rest are pretty much nothing more than good athletes that can give you some energetic minutes playing tough defense and going after rebounds. 

No one-on-one  While they aren’t great defensively, Texas has some really decent on-ball defenders.  As Trips mentions, they have two guys to defend our two best guys.  However, our two can easily put their two in foul trouble and this will be especially true if we’re playing within the offense and forcing them to rotate defensively.  This means working through the post, swinging around the perimeter and overall, just attacking the basket.  We have some nice shooters, Sherron and Tyshawn can usually beat their man, but we are indescirbably better when we get everyone a touch and that’s especially true against a team that can guard you.

Don’t be afraid to zone  If you can explain to me why Bill kept going away from the zone that was having so much success the other night, you’re far more observant than I.  But I’m over that.  Sort of.  And I’ll up the ante there as long as he’s willing to play some tomorrow.  I’m pretty confident we can guard them in a man, but since Abrams is the only threat on the perimeter and Texas is one of the few teams we’ll play that can match (or best) our athleticism, we should be prepared to go to a zone if necessary. Which it may be. 

Rebound  Texas is a horrible shooting team outside of Abrams.  But everyone on the inside and Mason from the perimeter all crash the boards very well. On both ends.  It’s especially important that we protect the defensive glass though, because even if we’re doing our job and forcing them into jump shots, they have the ability to track down the rebounds and negate our good defense.  I really do like the way we go after the ball, but like our recent teams, we still do not box out well.  In the second half of last year’s loss in Austin, Damion James out-rebounded our entire team because of this.  Let’s not let it happen again.

Play at our pace  Our single biggest advantage tomorrow is that Texas should have to defend an offense, while we will only have to defend players.  We are much greater than the sum of our parts when we’re moving the ball and taking care of it at the same time.  And quite predictably, we look like shit any time we get sped up.  Funny how that works.   If we have the chance, we should push the ball down their throats.  If it’s not there, sit back and play the high-low.  For all their offensive deficiencies, Texas is much better in the open floor than they are in the half court, so we don’t need a track meet.  But we still need to punish them every time we have the opportunity, because they can keep us in check if we’re in the half court the whole time.  We tend to go as Sherron goes and at home, he’s been nothing short of great.  For reference, here’s a look at the numbers of all league home games + Tennessee: 20 ppg on 47% FG, 46% from three, 5.25 assists and 3.2 rebounds.  Take out the Colorado game on those increase to 21, 51%, 56%, 5.5 & nearly 4.   If we get that kind of game out of him tomorrow, protect the glass and keep AJ in check, we’ll be the only ones hoisting a Big XII championship trophy.

Your thoughts?