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Big XII North: Futility at its finest
Posted by Hiphopopotamus on October 25th, 2009 under Football
I’m not sure there’s any reason bothering to predict how things play out, but since the comedy of errors that is this division must be “won” by someone, let’s at least take a gander. I should preface with saying that I haven’t thought this through at all and anything I write will be done off the cuff as I go along.
1. Kansas State: 5-3 (3-1)
Games remaining: @ OU, v. Kansas, v. Missouri, @ Nebraska
In all likelihood, winning two will make them division champs. Personally, I don’t see it happening, but maybe I’m just being ignorant. I realize this is a comically bad division, but this remains a team that couldn’t beat Louisiana Monroe Lafayette. Their quarterback threw for 80 yards yesterday (in a 2 touchdown win). Improved? Yes. Good? Absolutely not. We all know they’re losing in Norman and despite what we saw yesterday I really don’t see them winning on senior day in Lincoln (mind you, they haven’t won a road game yet). That means they have to beat both Kansas and Missouri in Manhattan. Maybe they pull out one, but I’m really seeing an 0-4 finish here. While both KU and MU have struggled, they can both take away the run and unless Gregory can make them pay through the air (he can’t), K-State won’t be able to keep up with the passing attack of either team.
Projected finish: 5-7 (3-5) : North tiebreakers over: ISU, CU
2. Iowa State: 5-3 (2-2)
Games remaining: @ OSU, v. Texas A&M, v. Colorado, @ Missouri
The Cyclones are oh so close to being 4-0 right now and Paul Rhoads has to be the front runner for Big XIi coach of the year. Going into Lincoln, without their starting QB, and winning for the first time since ‘77 is impressive. Even if it was only a result of 8 Nebraska turnovers (four of them inside the ISU 5 yard line). Improved or not, I can’t see them winning either road game. Both home contests, however, are plenty winnable and for the sake of argument, let’s say they take them both.
Projected finish: 7-5 (4-4) North tiebreakers over: NU, CU
3. Kansas: 5-2 (1-2)
Games remaining: @ Tech, @ KSU, v. Nebraska, @ Texas, v. Missouri
Horribly passive on the defensive side of the ball, the Jayhawks no longer have a guarantee win on the schedule. But really, we knew that going in. What we didn’t know was that their offense would give one away in Boulder. The trip to Lubbock seems unwinnable (then again A&M just went there and worked the Raiders, so who knows). The trip to Austin is going to be ugly. But I still like them in the other three. Maybe that’s the fan in me, but as disappointing as the last 8 days have been, you can’t tell me any of those three teams are any better.
Projected finish: 8-4 (4-4): North tiebreakers over: ISU, KSU, NU, MU
Fuck that UPS guy and his damn marker. I didn’t think that fuckstick could get any more annoying, and yet, he’s done it. Fuck him right in the ear.
4. Nebraska: 4-3 (1-2)
Games remaining: @ Baylor, v. OU, @ Kansas, KSU, @ CU
I still can’t get over the fact that they lost that game yesterday. But then again, I guess that’s what an 8-0 turnover margin will do for you. Their defense will keep them in it every week (the visit from the Sooners should just be billed an SEC game), but Zac Lee and the offense are simply horrendous. I’ve seen that ISU defense up close and anyone not getting to double digits on them is mind-boggling. That said, I still see them taking care of business in Waco and against the Wildcats. But knowing what we do about them at this point, I can’t see them keeping up with Kansas or even scoring on Oklahoma. That will leave them 3-4 prior to ending the season in Boulder and for that one, I just don’t know. When you don’t know, I guess you go with the home team?
Projected finish: 6-6 (3-5): North tiebreakers over: MU, KSU
5. Colorado: 2-5 (1-2)
Games remaining: v. Missouri, v. Texas A&M, @ ISU, @ OSU, v. Nebraska
Why in the hell are we the only team that didn’t get to play against Cody Hawkins? Horribly unfair. Anyway, it’s nice to see the Buffs are back to their inept ways. Or something. I’m not sure we know what any of these teams are going to do from week to week anymore, least of all this one. Neither Texas nor Kansas can do anything on the ground and yet, when they play a team that can only run the ball (and do it marginally), they’re not equipped to stop the ground game as Daniel Thomas went for 145 on 20 carries. As for their remaining games, I see both road trips as losses. And because I don’t have a clue, I’ll say they lose to the Tigers, but take the other two?
Projected finish: 4-8 (3-5)
6. Missouri: 4-3 (0-3)
Games remaining: @ Colorado, Baylor, @ KSU, ISU, v. Kansas (Arrowhead)
Tough team to figure right now. We know they’re not good, but we’re not sure just how bad they are. One thing they’ve got going for them is that they’re done with their hard games. Because of that, I actually see them going on a run here and winning four straight heading into Arrowhead. The Baylor and ISU ones seem like givens and while they could easily lose both roadies, I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt (though I’m not sure why). Unfortunately, for the Tigers, I think they end up on the wrong side of the trip to Arrowhead again.
Projected finish: 8-4 (4-4): North tiebreakers over: CU, KSU, ISU
And amazingly that leaves your Kansas Jayhawks as the sacrificial lamb sent to Dallas to be pulverized by Texas en route to Pasadena. I honestly went to bed last night assuming we were done. In fact I thought that all week, ever since the pass to Dez fell to the ground in Boulder.All I’ll say is, I didn’t write this knowing the results that I’d project, mostly because I didn’t know the other schedules. But doesn’t everything I outlined above sound plenty likely? Then again, since highly likely has gone out the window in the league, maybe this was just a complete waste of time. If nothing else, it served as viable psychology to talk me off the ledge.
Thoughts?
And just in case you think you understand this league, please remember these scores that have taken place the last three weeks:
Kansas State 14 @ Texas Tech 66
Texas A&M 14 @ Kansas State 62
Texas A&M 52 @ Texas Tech 30
We’ve really become Texas and the 11 dwarfs. Otherwise known as 2005.
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kuoirad said:
October 25th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
You know, I wasn’t sure I could be more depressed about things, but I think you just put me there.
Hiphopopotamus said:
October 25th, 2009 at 4:49 pm
Did we read the same post?
I just proved – without a shadow of a doubt, I might add – that we can still win the north. I’m not sure a more dubious honor exists, but hey, at least it’s still there for the taking.
kuoirad said:
October 25th, 2009 at 5:10 pm
It’s just that the North sucks *that* bad this year. And I’m still a little “off” from just how bad the game was yesterday. The defense were MEN, mostly. The offense? Dunno.
Seeing lots of speculation on the KUSports boards that Reesing played almost like he was hungover, and out partying Friday night….
Hiphopopotamus said:
October 25th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
Ha, looks like Whitlock came up with the same conclusion. Also, Rock M Nation has it coming down to Arrowhead. It feels like were grasping at straws here, but as disappointing as things have been, this was still the goal we all had for this year.
I wouldn’t read too much into anything you hear on the KUSports.com boards. Not to say he wasn’t out – in fact, I’d bet he had a cocktail or two – but I’m sure he wasn’t out hammered and I’m all but positive he wasn’t hungover by 2:30 (a seasoned drinker hardly needs that much time to recover). I think that’s more of an easy generalization to make because people know he likes to party, but I’m guessing they don’t really have much to base it on.
Fact is, we were predictable, OU was ready for what we did and they have the players to make us pay. That defense is good enough that despite their horrible offense they are the second best team in the league.
Pinwiz said:
October 25th, 2009 at 5:51 pm
I’m sick of this “woe is us, the North sucks” talk.
We don’t have control over the other teams in our conference. All we can control is our performances, and only two things have always mattered:
1. We win the North
2. We go to a Bowl
Since there’s no national tournament, that has always been the point. If we win the North, we Win. The rest is irrelevant.
kuoirad said:
October 25th, 2009 at 6:25 pm
Hiphopopotamus:
Heh. Agreed. I should clarify – I’m not trying to put our loss solely on Reesing, though I would opine his play is a contributing factor.
The predictability you mentioned is a much bigger one, however. Again, stealing this from KUSports, but why is it we seem to line up in the same formation a lot – Dez and Meier to the short side, Wilson and McDougald to the wide, Sharp/Opurum next to Reesing in the backfield. Then never really look to the wide side…
Dunno, I don’t have enough “football IQ” to know what the answer is. I wish we could run “for real” more than the lip service we seem to pay it. Though the problem there seems to be that if Sharp’s running, the defense knows it’s probably bouncing outside. If it’s Opurum, up the gut. I’m a little perplexed why we didn’t try some more edge running (sweeps, options, etc)…would that just have been asking for pain against OU’s D?
Hiphopopotamus said:
October 25th, 2009 at 7:01 pm
I’m with you pin. Yesterday was expected, and it wouldn’t have hurt at all if we’d beaten Colorado. But two straight with a trip to Lubbock on tap and all of a sudden, the sky is falling. But the fact remains, our primary goal of winning the north is still well within reach.
Kuoirad: we absolutely need to look for Wilson, McDougald and Biere a lot more often. Dez and Kerry are great and they can beat great coverage, but we really need to exploit the attention they draw better than we have been.
As for running, we’re not going to see our full ground game until (or if) Sharp is ever healthy. He doesn’t have his usual burst (see: shovel pass when he couldn’t breakaway) and against that defense, neither him nor Opurum had the speed to get outside.
After seeing how A&M’s horrible offensive line paved the way for 2 hundred yard rushers yesterday at Tech, I’d love to see some two back sets (maybe even with Pick back there) to try and establish a ground game and open up the pass a bit. Nothing will help get Todd on track than to feel like he doesn’t have to do it all.
Raefzilla said:
October 26th, 2009 at 6:41 am
I’m mildly optimistic about the Tech game, simply because of A&M’s performance and the fact that they might be using their 3rd string freshman QB. Still, Tech absolutely embarrassed us last year, and Mangino teams on the road outside of 2007 have not been a good bet.
roberto said:
October 27th, 2009 at 1:33 am
1. “but this remains a team that couldn’t beat Louisiana Monroe.”
Uh, no, anyone who thinks that K-State would lose to Louisiana LAFAYETTE again, as it did by 2 pts in week two, in week nine is an idiot. K-State does not remain the team it was when it lost to ULL, it’s gotten A LOT better.
2. “(mind you, they haven’t won a road game yet).”
That depends on your definition of “road game.” K-State did beat Iowa State in Arrowhead Stadium (not Snyder Family Stadium) in a game in which ISU was the designated as the home team.
Check it out, ESPN even lists it on our schedule as a win @ ISU: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/teams/schedule?teamId=2306
3. We all know that K-State is losing in Norman, but only a mental midget would think it’s a foregone conclusion that K-State will lose at home to Mizzou. Mind you, K-State hasn’t lost a home game yet. And Mizzou has done nothing this season except beat 4-3 Nevada. Mizzou is averaging 12 points per game in Big 12 play and a team that has scored absolutely nothing in second of half vs the Big 12 save a lone 3rd Q FG against Nebraska: Mizzou has not scored in the fourth quarter since it beat NV. Yeah, you’re still living in 2007 if you think KSU can’t beat MU in Manhattan. Furthermore, I’d say that K-State can beat KU in Manhattan as well. KSU beat Colorado and ISU, and KU has already proven in head-to-head play that it really isn’t better than either of those teams.
Sorry, but you aren’t seeing K-State for what they are: a team that’s improving every week in a division where all the favorites are falling apart. If KSU can win just one more game, they’ll likely at least tie for 1st. If the Cats can win 2 more, they’ll be in the Big 12 Championship with 5 conference wins.
Hiphopopotamus said:
October 27th, 2009 at 5:36 am
Appreciate the correction. Apparently, I should edit these things once or twice before I post them
And my definition of a road game is one in which you play in the opponent’s stadium, or at the very least, one in which you play much closer to their stadium than your own. The game at Arrowhead was not a road game for Kansas State (if any team had an argument, which neither does, it would be ISU).
As for your final point, I’d suggest you just re-read what I wrote above. At no point did I suggest that any of this was a foregone conclusion. In fact, I said I wouldn’t be surprised if they took one of them.
I’m too lazy to look it up right now, but in the pre-season I predicted K-State to be in even better shape than they are now (I said 6-2 or 7-1 if they stole one at UCLA) and for the predictable, Bill Snyder is a miracle worker talk to infiltrate the sports world, followed by an 0-4 finish and them likely finishing 6-6. K-State has shown me nothing to change that prediction. KU, MU and NU, on the other hand…
Get back to me when you have a point worth making.
roberto said:
October 27th, 2009 at 10:11 am
Let’s see you were out and out wrong about one and two, which really painted the rest of my reading experience bc it was clear you weren’t paying attn, but because I didn’t read your preseason predictions, I don’t have a point worth making?
Sorry, but that’s just childish, defensive, and lame.
Why are you attacking readers when you are the one making easily preventable, bad errors that are unfair to the team you are discussing?
Seems to me that you’re the one without a real point to make.
Hiphopopotamus said:
October 27th, 2009 at 11:15 am
My mistake, you had a point to make. You correctly pointed out a typo.
Trying to claim that because ESPN.com says so, K-State won a road game in Arrowhead Stadium – despite it being about 100 miles closer to their campus than the designated home team’s – is not point, however.
roberto said:
October 29th, 2009 at 12:17 am
Uh, you said, “mind you, they haven’t won a road game yet.” Arrowhead is not Bill Snyder Family Stadium, KC is not Manhattan. And it’s not just what ESPN says, the game was considered a home game for ISU. Who cares where the stadium is, it’s not Snyder Family Stadium, and your blog leads people to believe that KSU has not won outside of Snyder Family Stadium, which is false.
Also saying KSU lost at home to ULL instead of on the road is a little more than a typo.
Furthermore, I don’t see the point of mentioning the ULL game now anyway. If you really think that ULL is a better team than K-State right now, then you’re a freaking fool. And the fact that KSU lost ULL isn’t going to help KU play better defense or run the ball, and it’s not going to make Mizzou a competent offensive unit, nor will it make Nebraska competent on offense. The only way that loss to ULL is impacting the North race is that KSU has a bigger chip on its shoulder than anyone else in the division right now. You can’t judge this team by what it did in week 2. A lot of personnel changes and have occurred since then, and the team has obviously improved a great deal since then.
And the pounding at Tech just shows that the team is resilient. A lot of teams just don’t have the heart to come back from a beating like that and put together a good season. Good teams are resilient and play with heart.
And that’s the thing that gets me about your post: how quickly you completely discount the idea that KSU could be any good at all.
“Improved? Yes. Good? Absolutely not.”
We just held A&M and Colorado to their lowest point totals of the season in back to back weeks, allowing an average of 10 points a game. And to this day A&M’s offense ranks 3rd in total offense nationally, and 8th in scoring offense. And after games against Arkansas and Tech, the 14 points that KSU’s 3rd string D allowed A&M after the score was 59-0 is easily fewest A&M has scored all season.
Colorado has faced WVU, Texas, and KU and scored more points on all of them than they did against KSU. CU scored on its opening drive of the game, and then got blanked the rest of the way. No one else has bottled up the Buffs that well.
Yet, you can’t even consider for a second that the team is any good.
Maybe our offense is mediocre, but the defense might actually end up as the best in the North this season. It’s definitely between KSU, ISU, and NU for the best D. KU and MU aren’t even on the map at this point. CU’s D is pretty good, but not good enough against the run.
You probably haven’t even seen K-State play this season, have you? I have, and trust me, they’re good. They’re way, way better than most people think.
Hiphopopotamus said:
October 29th, 2009 at 5:44 am
Also saying KSU lost at home to ULL instead of on the road is a little more than a typo
Never said that all. Now you’re just plain lying. And the reason for mentioning that game is that improved or not, this team is still comprised of players capable of losing to a team like Lafayette. That, in itself, should give you pause.
As for the remainder of your post, I felt like there was actually a decent point or two hidden in there, but if you think any team from the Big XII north is good then this isn’t a debate worth having.
Also, Kansas had a really good defense in 2005, both within the league and nationally. But they didn’t have a reliable offense. You know what it got them? 3 league wins and a Forth Worth Bowl trophy. Just sayin.
kuoirad said:
October 29th, 2009 at 8:11 am
Hiphopopotamus:
I think you found you a prairie aggy. I’m not sure it’s worth anything more than cutting up for bait, though.
Roberto:
And the pounding at Tech just shows that the team is resilient. A lot of teams just don’t have the heart to come back from a beating like that and put together a good season. Good teams are resilient and play with heart.
Guess aTm is a resilient team that plays with heart, given the fact that they went into Lubbock and kicked the crap out of Tech…
Gene Claude said:
October 29th, 2009 at 9:27 am
Hiphop, I generally agree with what you have said. KSU has one game in which it has looked good, A&M, and has beaten zero decent teams. Hell, UCLA is winless since beating KSU. But they deserve credit for taking care of business against the other dregs of the conference, and certainly could beat MU or KU. There are several scenarios with the Wildcats tying for the division title and winning a tiebreaker. I don’t think the are the favorite, but then again, nobody is.
The most likely north winner is Nebraska, I think, simply because of the schedule and owning the tie breaker over Mizzou. KU has a decent chance as well, and there are several scenarios that have Mizzou winning it.
We are busy modeling the rest of the season over at AT and will have a sort of predict – a – north out soon with the tiebreakers built in. I would guess that it will show Nebraska as a slight favorite, but all four of MU, KU, NU and KSU having somewhere in the 20% chances of winning the north, with it going NU, KU, MU and KSU, based on expected Vegas lines of each game.
Also…the argument that playing ISU at Arrowhead was a road game cracks me up. And many KSU fans seem to not realize the difference between starting your conference season with three of the projected bottom 4 teams and starting your conference season with 3 of the projected top 4 teams…..
kuoirad said:
October 29th, 2009 at 9:30 am
I just think prairie aggy doesn’t understand the concept of a game at a neutral venue. Like when we have to play you guys at Arrowhead after Thanksgiving, or OU/UT at the Cotton Bowl – not a home or away game for either team…
Gene Claude said:
October 29th, 2009 at 9:30 am
Also, if KSU wins 2 more games, it better pick the correct two more games (KU, KSU and NU, in particular) to win the North…and therein lies the biggest problem with KSU winning the North…it has ALL of its tough games left, and three of them matter greatly for tiebreakers. KSU has to beat two of NU, KU and MU to really have a shot at the north.
Gene Claude said:
October 29th, 2009 at 9:35 am
Well, I wouldn’t call Arrowhead a neutral venue game for KSU. I haven’t seen estimates post-game, but I heard pre-game it was going to be 70% or more KSU fans (unlike MU/KU at Arrowhead, or MU/IL in StL). I count an Arrowhead game as a home game for KSU for precedent purposes.
In the end, when considering KSU, you have to decide what precedential value you give the A&M game. Hell, they scored close to 50% of their season total points against DI opponents that game. Seems aberrational to me, but maybe it isn’t. Beating CU at home 20 – 6 is hardly something to brag about, seems like more evidence that KSU’s offense is challenged and its defense is decent.
I do agree that every Big 12 North team has serious flaws. However, MU’s have looked worse than they probably are due to the competition (and conditions for the NU game) the last three weeks. And MU has not lost a game it was absolutely supposed to win (as opposed to KU and NU). KU still easily has the best offense in the division, Nebraska has the best defense. Makes it hard for me to predict KSU emerging as the North champions.
Personally, I think all the uncertainty in the North is awesome. Should be a fun 5 weeks. I really hope the game at Arrowhead is for the right to be ritually disemboweled in Dallas.