As we enter February, now seems like as good a time as any to take stock of the league race.

1. Kansas (20-1, 6-0)

No explanation necessary. They’re the best team and they sit with a two game lead. Anyone forecasting otherwise is purely guessing. Having said that (/Curb), they’ve got plenty of tough tests remaining.

Road – Colorado, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, & Missouri – that’s four tournament teams
Home – Nebraska, Iowa State, Colorado, Oklahoma, Kansas State – four gimmes and test

Assuming they take care of business in the Phog and Boulder, a split of the remaining tough ones leaves them at 14-2. Since everyone else already has two losses, that should be plenty to get it done.

2. Kansas State (17-4, 4-3)

They’re here partly because of what they’ve done, but moreso because of what I think they can and will do. The Okie State slip-up was inexcusable and could come back to haunt them, but they’re still in very good shape going forward.

Road – Nebraska, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas – anything worse than 3-2 would suprise, anything worse than 2-3 would be a complete collapse.
Home – Colorado, Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa State – they will not lose any of these

Follow that path and they’re likely looking at 11-5 or 12-4, which should leave them in good shape.

3. Texas (18-3, 4-2)

Obviously in a bit of a downward spiral, but with that amount of talent, I just can’t knock them any further. Things aren’t getting any easier, however.

Road: Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Missouri, Tech, Baylor – I’ll be stunned beyond belief if they lose all five, but not one of those is a sure thing.
Home: Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma – If they can take out Ku next Monday, they should be able to sweep the remainder in the Drum.

Their road trips are such an unknown that it’s hard to project, but something along the lines of 11-5, give or take a game seems about right.

4. Missouri (16-5, 4-2)

As they have all year, to me, they still look extremely tough at home and very much average on the road. But when you look down the schedule, things line up pretty nicely for them.

Road: Colorado, Baylor, Nebraska, K-State, Iowa State – I’d mark the trip to the OOD as a loss and Waco won’t be easy, but the other three are very winnable.
Home: A&M, Iowa State, Texas, Colorado, Kansas – Neither KU nor UT will be easy, but they should roll in the other 3.

With that remaining schedule and four wins in the hopper, anything less than 10-6 would be pretty disappointing, which is where I’ve had them pegged since the start of league play. So far, I haven’t seen anything to change my mind.

5. Baylor (16-4, 3-3)

After coming oh so close in Allen and then letting one slip away at home (to KSU), the Bears finalized capitalized and stole one back in Austin over the weekend. And with that they went from teetering on the edge to legitimate contender.

Road: A&M, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Tech – I think they’re better than all five of these teams, but they’re still Baylor so anything better than 3-2 seems like a reach.
Home: Iowa State, Missouri, Tech, A&M, Texas – Since they really don’t have a home court advantage, 3-2 is probably where I’d slot them here as well.

Do that and they’ll end up a very respectable 9-7, and with those Arkansas and South Carolina wins picking up steam, they’d be in good shape come selection time.

6. Oklahoma State (16-5, 4-3)

Every time I watch them, it feels like they’re getting blown out, but they just keep hanging around. James Anderson is as fun to watch as anyone and can single-handedly win games for them, but he doesn’t have much for consistent help.

Road: Tech, ISU, Texas, A&M – think they’d have to be pleased with a split
Home: Texas, Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas, Nebraska – Anything less than three would be a huge disappointment and all five are winnable. Split the difference and give them four here and you’re looking at a 10 win team.

By that logic, I should have them above Baylor, but I just don’t buy it qualitatively. Hell, both will probably find a way to end up 8-8 anyhow.

7. Texas A&M (15-6, 4-3)

And here’s why so many are calling the Big XII the best league in the land. This isn’t a seventh best in the league kind of team, but I just couldn’t bump anyone down.

Road: Missouri, Tech, ISU, Baylor, Oklahoma
Home: Baylor, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State

Of those nine games, not one is a gimme. And really, wouldn’t be for anyone. Could they win all four at home? Sure, but really they’d have to be very happy with 3-1. And I can’t say with any certainty that I think they’ll win more than 2 or 3 of those roadies. A lot of guesswork here, but feels like an 8-8 type finish, but with some decent work in the non-con, should still be a tourney team.

Of the remaining five, I’d probably rank them like so:

Tech, Iowa State, Colorado, Oklahoma, Nebraska…and they’re all going to be tough outs at home, but I wouldn’t expect more than a couple road wins combined the rest of the way. Can’t say a way any of these teams sneak into the Dance, and until they’re in that argument, we won’t be discussing them.

We did a ton of projecting here – and tonight’s game in Stillwater (against Texas) will obviously figure in heavily – but we’ve now seen these teams for twenty plus games and each has established themself in one way or another. A lot can and will change in the next month, but for now, this is how I see things shaking out.

Thoughts?