Lunch tips

7) BYU v. 10) Florida - As most do, I’ve got the Cougs here. One, because I love cougars. And two, because Florida probably shouldn’t even be in the field. I don’t expect much defense in this one, on either end, which should make for a fun first game.

6) Notre Dame v. 11) Old Dominion – This one should be tight, and I’m guessing the votes have been pretty evenly split. I again went seed and took the Irish. They’ve become ridiculously boring to watch, but they control the pace, and in the opening rounds, that’s probably the biggest singular determinant.

2) Villanova v. 15) Robert Morris - Likely a sleeper, as big Bob probably should have been a 16 and Lehigh a 15, but with two other good ones on, no big deal.

Late afternoon

4) Vandy v. 13) Murray State - Since I have the Racers in the Sweet 16, I’m optimistic for our first big upset to come here. And either way, it should be fun, because they play 10 guys and they get up and down. Murray, prrezent.

2) Kansas State v. 15) North Texas – Another bore.

3) Baylor v . 14) Sam Houston State - A shame we’ll have two Big XII teams going at the same time, although this one might be as boring as the other as long as the Bears defend Corey Allmond. If they don’t it could get interesting. Remember, this is a team that hasn’t won a tourney game in 60 years.

7) Richmond v. 10) St. Mary’s - Has a chance to be the game of the day. The Spiders have an awesome backcourt, which is why I went with them, but they’ll have a ton of trouble Samhan. Don’t miss this one.

Evening Games

UNLV v. 9) Northern Iowa - I’m rooting for the Rebs, for a variety of reasons, but I’ve got the Panthers. Worth a watch for socuting purposes, if nothing else.

1) Kentucky v. 16) East Tennessee State – I’ll say this… it’s fun to hate Kentucky again. That went away for awhile with their irrelevance and it’s good to have that back as part of my life.

6) Marquette v. 11) Washington – The Huskies are riding a bit of a hot stretch and I would have been tempted to take them here, but I don’t like the matchup. They don’t play much D anyway, and the Eagles guards are relentless on the dribble.

3) Georgetown v. 14) Ohio - If I tune in here, it will just be to visualize what our offense would look like with Monroe flanking Aldrich. You know I love the twins, but watching them run their offense through him is pure joy. He’s a modern day Vlade Divac, though I’m told he doesn’t carry the same scent.

Late Evening

1) Kansas v. 16) Lehigh - Ideally, it won’t be a game by halftime. The Mountain Hawks have some nice pieces on the perimeter, and McCollum is a game-breaker, but the Jayhawks can match them everywhere and should dominate inside.

Texas v. 9) Wake Forest - The under-achiever game couldn’t interest me much less, but I’ll watch for my man Damion James.

3) New Mexico v. 14) Montana - I’d like to see some of this one, because I haven’t seen nearly enough of Hobson or the Lobos. Feel like I know less about them than some of the auto-bids.

6) Tennessee v. 11) San Diego State - The upset pick de jour, I went with the Vols, just to go against the grain. They’ll have a lot of trouble keeping the Aztecs off the glass, and they’ve been as inconsistent as anyone outside of Connecticut, but what the hell. Should be a great one.

Enjoy the games everyone. And put your thoughts here.

Rock Chalk

Since we haven’t yet had time to – and probably won’t – do a full on preview, here’s a quick summary.

Midwest

I like a lot of chalk getting through. The 6-11 in this region is awfully strong, Georgetown is schizophrenic, Ohio State is thin, but ultimately, this one just seems too good at the top. I like Kansas, State, GTown and Ohio State to the Sweet 16, with KU trumping the Buckeyes to get to Indy.

West

The region that hinges on Arinze could go a lot of different ways, but really, it’s stronger at the bottom than at the top. Both FSU and Gonzaga could cause an Arinze-less Cuse problems, but both seem too deficient (FSU on O, Zags on D) to pull the upset. I like Murray State over Vandy, and probably UTEP over Butler, with the Racers onto the Sweet 16. On the bottom, the Cougs could give KState some trouble in the second round, but they can’t handle them on the glass…Cats survive on the support of easy putbacks. That gives us a Sweet 16 of: Cuse, Murray State, Xavier and KState, with another 1/2 final and the Cuse advancing. This is why Sailor pays me the big bucks.

East

Some tough decisions at the top with Cornell/Temple, both of which got under-seeded. I’m a little jaded here, because I watched our Hawks absolutely run Temple off their own floor, while Cornell played us tight in the Phog for 39 minutes. But at the same time, I get why the Owls are a bad matchup for Big Red and this time of year, thems the breaks. Tough call, but I’m going with the Ivy Leaguers, perhaps against my better judgment. That gives us a Sweet 16 of: Kentucky, Cornell, Marquette & West Virginia. And since I’ve been out on so many limbs already, I’ll take Huggy Bear over Cal pal in a grinder to get to Indy.

East

Duke could have some trouble early with Lousiville, except that I don’t think the Cards can handle Cal – again, maybe I’m overrating them after watching them not blink in Allen, but still. Below, I like Siena to take our Purdue – this seems too trendy to work, but I watched Purdue score 11 points in a half the other day and I can’t get that out of my mind. Down low, the biggest thing I’ve got is Richmond over Villanova. That sets up a Houston based Sweet 16 of: Duke, A&M, Baylor and Richmond. And despite taking the chalk here, I think I’m in the minority, as I’ve got Duke advancing over Baylor. How they’ll handle Udoh, I have no idea, but I’m just not ready to have Baylor in my Final Four.

Final Four

Kansas over Syracuse and Duke over West Virginia to set up a rematch of the 1991 National Title. This time, the good guys come out on top, as the Kansas Jayhawks are your 2010 National Champion.

And while I may believe very little of that except for the final sentence, go ahead and celebrate. After all, you’ve got plenty of excuses. Happy Mullet Wednesday! Happy St. Patrick’s Day! And Happy March Madness! It’s the most wonderful time of the year, and you can’t tell me differently.

Go Here

Group name: Beat the Barkers Tourney Bracket

Password: Damien

In case you were looking for something with a little more at stake (wink wink, nudge nudge) be sure and check out the OreadBracketKings group.  Damn it, just join both.  But if you want in on the OreadBracketKings group be sure and send an email to bewareofthephog11@gmail.com to get details on the rest of the entry requirements.  If you don’t we will pull your bracket by the time the sweet sixteen rolls around.  Anyone is welcome to join, but as they say “you gotta pay the troll toll to get in that boys hole”…ore something like that.

Group name: OreadBracketKings

Password: calswhisperingeye

p.s.: Is it just me or is everyone picking Baylor at least to the Elite Eight?  It’s crazy, seems like the Bear bandwagon is full up.

1st Round: Lehigh - Probably the toughest 16 seed out there – and we Kansas fans obviously don’t like getting a Patriot League team in Oklahoma City – but they’re still a 16 and we’re still a 1. If we can’t handle them, we weren’t going to do much damage anyway.

2nd Round: UNLV/UNI - Many are talking about this as a dangerous game. Personally, I’m more worried about Lehigh. I’ve actually watched both of these teams play a couple times this year, and was never impressed. I do like the omen of possibly getting UNLV as our second round game…that went well last time.

Sweet 16: Michigan State/Maryland – Both of these teams are good quality, top 20 type teams. Basically, they’re A&M. Each of them can match us on the perimeter, but neither has any inside presence to speak of, and we should own the paint.

Elite 8: Ohio State/Georgetown – And this is why everyone calls it the toughest region. And deservedly so, as both have been playing great. Like almost all teams, we have no answer for Monroe or Turner. But those stars aside, these teams don’t create huge problems for us. Of the two, I’d rather face Georgetown – because our biggest weakness is probably defending the three – but both have extremely short benches, neither can take us out of what we do offensively, and we should dominate the glass against both. Long story short, this will be a really tough, hardfought game…but that’s what the Elite 8 is supposed to be.

And that’s our road to Indy. I’m not sure what all the fuss is about.

First off, let me get this straight. As the committee says, they seed based on an S-Curve. So by that logic, this is how they see the top 16…

1. Kansas
2. Kentucky
3. Duke
4. Syracuse
5. Kansas State
6. Villanova
7. West Virginia
8. Ohio State
9. Georgetown
10. New Mexico
11. Baylor
12. Pittsburgh
13. Vanderbilt
14. Purdue
15. Wisconsin
16. Maryland

Are you fucking kidding me? Certainly, we don’t have a clue how this is going to play out. Nobody does, and that’s the beauty of the tournament. But when you’re the #1 overall seed, you’re supposed to at least be afforded the advantage on paper. We were afforded no such advantage. And I’d even argue that we have the toughest of each of the top 6 seeds.

1. Kansas > Kentucky, Duke and Syracuse
2. OSU > West Virginia, KSU, Nova
3. Georgetown > New Mexico, Baylor, Pitt
4. Maryland > Vandy, Wisconsin, Purdue
5. Michigan State > Texas A&M, Temple, Butler
6. Tennessee > Xavier, Marquette, Notre Dame

Reasonable minds can certainly differ, and I’m sure many would argue with me on some of those. Hell, I’d even admit that WVU may be as good, or better than, Ohio State. And I’m sure some would argue the four line. But the fact that an argument can be made that the Midwest Region is the strongest in every position, 1 – 6, is simply unreal!

But be that as it may, the road has been laid and now it’s up to us to get it done. We weren’t done any favors, but who cares. Go out, play ball, have some fun and take care of business. That’s how we’ve done things all year, and just because we got a shit draw, nothing needs to change.

If it plays to seed, we’d need to go through:

Lehigh, UNLV, Maryland, Ohio State, Syracuse, Kentucky

And when I look at the brackets, that feels about right. One small change I expect is getting Michigan State instead of Maryland. After that it’s wild speculation, because of what could happen in all the other regions. But Syracuse seems to have the easiest region of them all, so I fully expect them to be in Indy. Kentucky is purely a seed thing, because they weren’t done any great favors drawing West Virginia, but they’re capable, so we’ll plan in seeing them in Indy, if we’re so fortunate. It won’t be easy, but shit, we’re still the best team in the land, so if anyone can do this, it’s our Jayhawks.

Thoughts?

That’s three stern tests from our in-state rival Wildcats, and three tests passed with flying colors. Each had a different atmosphere. Each had its own unique style. But each eventually played out the same way. And that’s why you should all feel very good heading into the Dance.

Friday and Saturday were second weekend type wins in a second weekend type environment. Obviously we want to make one further and win them as well, but the pieces are in place and the guys look to be clicking. We’re stagnant at times, we do some of the dumbest shit you’ll see, but when it comes down to it, we keep making the plays. It’s agonizing and ultimately thrilling to watch, just about every time.

We’ll be back later to touch on our early matchups and region as a whole, but for now, consider this your Selection Sunday open thread.

Rock Chalk!

p.s. Best guessing here on seeds, and I’d love to hear your thoughts…

1. Kansas
2. Kansas State
4. Baylor
5. Texas A&M
8. Texas
9. Oklahoma State
10. Missouri

6:00 – Kansas v Texas A&M

The Hawks may have the most fans in the building tonight, but this isn’t the main event. After a slugfest in College Station, which Kansas had no business winning, the Ags will be looking to get some revenge and possibly slide up a line in the bracket. The Hawks…well, they’ll just be trying to win, but not for any particular reason other than that they enjoy doing so.

The key to the last game for A&M was Turgeon’s recognition that the shots weren’t falling for KU. Upon noticing, he immediately went into a sagging defense that cut off driving lanes and post entry feeds. He dared us to beat him from the outside and on that night, we couldn’t really make him pay. (Yes we won, but not on the offensive end…there’s a reason that was the only game in league we were held under 72 points.) Personally, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t try the same thing from the start tonight. If we burn him early (hard to believe we’d go 1-10 from three again), he can always adjust, but if I were coaching against us (really with his personnel, or any other), that’s how I’d play things and how I expect Turg to.

On our end, we need to do a better job in the post and on the glass. We controlled them late, but getting outrebounded by the Ags is inexcusable. And while I don’t expect Loubeau to go 7-11, for a 17 & 9 again, we certainly shouldn’t rule it out at this point. Other than that, keep them off the line and they probably won’t score a lot of points.

8:30 – Kansas State v Baylor

This one should be good. Or at least it was last time, and based on yesterday, these teams have only improved since then. Down in Waco, KState rode a white hot Jacob Pullen (25 points, 6-7 from three) to a 2 point win that could have gone either way, and went the way of the Cats after an ill-advised foul by LaceDarius. After two great performances by each last night, this one shapes up to be another thriller.

For KState, can they knock down shots to stretch that Baylor zone. For Baylor, can they protect the defensive glass on one end, and can they take care of the ball on the other? There’s about nobody better than KState at cleaning up the offensive glass, and I expect tonight to be no different. But their shooting comes and goes. It may be as simple as who gets better play out of their guards. Last time Pullen went for 25 and Clemente for 17, while Carter got 23 and Dunne struggled to only 9 points on 3-13 from the floor. I don’t expect that same line from Dunn tonight. If we’re fortunate enough to take out the Ags again, whoever we get wont go down easily and actually, Baylor may be the tougher matchup for us. Should be a good one.

Put your thoughts here.

Quickly, on the football front…yesterday, Kansas hosted it’s annual Pro Day. 10 players from the 2009 team, plus Joe Mortensen and Jason Swanson participated in the testing. And fortunately, some good came out of the thing.

Kerry Meier bested his 40 time from the combine, running a 4.53 as opposed to a 4.63 in Indy. Dez Briscoe did the same, notching a 4.48, much better than his times last week. But the show-stopper was Jake Sharp. Sharp came in with a forty time of 4.34 seconds, threw up 19 reps of 225 lbs on the bench and had some of the best showing on the jumps. Who knows how far any of this stuff goes, but for what it’s worth, Briscoe, Meier and Sharp all helped themselves quite a bit yesterday. Stuckey chose not to participate, having already wrecked shop at the Combine.

Back to basketball, we’ve got 4 more for you today…

11:30 – Kansas v Texas Tech

I think we all know this one comes down to effort, and I don’t expect to have much of a problem, although I was very impressed with Tech’s sizable win over Colorado yesterday. Play defense, make them beat you from the perimeter, and punish them on the inside. Let’s notch #2,000 and move on to bigger and better things.

2:00 – Texas A&M v Nebraska

The Corn get here by virtue of pantsing Mike Anderson’s Tigers in their home state yesterday. Turgeon has his Ags playing well, and I expect them to come out with a W, but don’t be surprised if Nebraska hangs around for a bit. It may be too much to ask for them to shoot well two days in a row, but if it happens, they can play with A&M.

6:00 – Kansas State v Oklahoma State

This is probably your game of the day, though the nightcap could be good as well. The Pokes took out KState in Manhattan earlier this year and could certainly do so again. Where KState can and should win this game is on the glass, but if they don’ have a big advntage there, they could be in trouble.

8:30 – Baylor v Texas

The Bears are already 2-0 against their state rival, but notching that third is never easy. James and Johnson are the perfect counter for the Baylor zone and should both have big games, but the question becomes, can Texas guard Baylor? They sure didn’t last week, and I wasn’t too impressed with their defensive effort last night, but we’ll see.

Enjoy the games and give us your thoughts.

Everyone that knows me knows I think conference tournaments are wastes of time. The conference championship is already determined (sorry Oklahoma fans) and the Main Event is a week away. History has shown very little correlation between conference tournament success and success later in March.

That said, when a season as great as this one is coming to an end, we need to be careful to enjoy the journey. So reminder: do that this weekend. As the great Roy Williams once said, “the losses hurt worse than an entire island nation being destroyed by an earthquake”. Wait, wrong quote. As the great Roy Williams once said, “the losses hurt worse than the wins feel good”. Not exactly eloquently said, but there is a lot of truth there for the big programs. We need to have fun this weekend, especially those of us that can’t enjoy our own tournament games.

So, basketball-wise, what would I like to see this weekend? I’m glad I asked. Despite my complaints from Saturday’s effort in Columbia, we are certainly peaking at the right time. Bill Self has gotten this down to an art form and though it might not always translate into deep runs in the dance, there is little doubt that we play our best ball at the end of the year. I think there are a few spots where we could improve and/or get ‘in the grove’. They are:

1. Get Cole the ball early and often. In the tournament we will need to be disciplined offensively and drop the ball down to him as frequently as possible. It’s obvious the rationale here, but Collins and others fall in love with how easy they find it to score and forget that %-wise, the big guy is always the best option. Do this on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday and we’ll have another tournament trophy to throw in the case and, more importantly, be well positioned for a deep run the rest of the month and into April.

2. Perimeter Defense. In the past few weeks we have fallen from #1 to #5 in Ken Pomeroy’s defensive efficiency rankings. This is partially because we’ve played quite a few good offensive teams in that stretch and because USC’s numbers have improved by playing against anemic Pac 10 defenses. However, our perimeter ranking of 123rd in the nation is troublesome. I would like to see more smart pressure from the guards this weekend, fighting through the many screens we’ll see, starting Thursday, so that we’re ready to face the better motion teams in the tournament.

3. Tyshawn. OK, I’ve been accused of being the biggest Tyshawn hater this side of Lubbock Smith. I’ll probably plead guilty on that. However, recently my mind has started to change. Not so much on how good he is this minute, because I think everyone agrees he is a decent but not great NCAA guard. But his potential to help this team has really been on display for me lately.

He is the quickest guy on the team and probably the best defensive guard (at least when he’s not making stupid mistakes). His ability to take guys off the dribble and run the court can really help us on days where Sherron isn’t in a groove. He has also ended the season with a surprisingly decent 3 point percentage. What I’d like to see this weekend from him is just more.

It seems to me that a guy that was coached by Bobby Hurley for 3 years shouldn’t be a bad fundamental player. His mistakes are quite surprising, but here’s what I’ve come to realize: If we can get more of the good Tyshawn then I’ll gladly accept some of the bad Tyshawn. Just give us more Tyshawn.

That’s what I’m looking for this weekend, the three keys that tell me we’re in good shape for the Main Event. What are you?

No, I can’t prove it’s a mullet under there, but I think we’ve got probable cause to believe so…

Games today…

11:30 – Colorado v Texas Tech

They played in Boulder last week and put up something like 200 combined points. Could be fun again.

2:00 – Missouri v Nebraska

I’m not sure I have the gumption to pick an outright upset here, especially being in KC, but it wouldn’t surprise me. The Huskers played Missouri tough a couple times this year and they don’t look like the same team without Safford. Still, probably too much pressure and depth for a team like Nebraska.

6:00 – Oklahoma State v Oklahoma

Watching James Anderson is always fun. And chances are, there won’t be much defense played in this one.

8:30 – Texas v Iowa State

Come and see the former #1 team in all the land!

If you’re going, get drunk and enjoy. If you’re working, watching, or otherwise, consider this your open thread.